Global Warming Update 2025

Climate scientists have found that global temperatures have likely risen by 1.5 °C since the Industrial Revolution. So what? You’ll find that hurricanes, droughts, etc., have not been increasing.

Furthermore, who says that global temperatures were optimal 150 years ago? The Earth is greener now than it has been for many decades. And the CO2 we emit is one reason for it. And the growing seasons in the US Midwest, as well as other countries where most of the food is grown, also have longer growing seasons.

Now look at this graph of global warming:

The greatest increase starts at around 1970, so let’s begin there. For the 50 years from 1970 to 2020, global temperatures increased about 1.0 °C. Doing a bit of math shows that the Earth is warming at the rate of 2 °C per century. Has anyone told you this? No. The climate change alarmists don’t make it easy to find this information. Thus, by the end of this century, the global temperature is expected to increase by 1.5 °C. Big deal. In the decades to come, you might have to use your AC a bit more.

Even more to the point is that wasting time, energy, and money to dramatically decrease CO2 emissions in the United States will have virtually no effect on atmospheric CO2. For instance, China, India, and the other developing nations are emitting more and more CO2, while the United States and most other developed countries are slightly decreasing their CO2 emissions.

If you’re still concerned, consider that worldwide wealth will vastly increase in the decades to come. By the end of the century, we’ll likely need very little of the fossil fuels, mostly because of nuclear power and solar energy.

Being prosperous will allow us to deal with any negative consequences of global warming (if any). Throwing money away on carbon credits, or subsidized solar or wind farms, will decrease prosperity.

Don’t worry. Be happy. 

How can we save the Earth?

The Earth doesn’t need saving. What can hurt the Earth? The Sun can. In a few billion years, the Sun will destroy the Earth. We can start worrying about that in a million years or so. A huge asteroid, say 1000 miles in diameter, could destroy the Earth. Not much we can do about that, so there’s no reason to worry about it.

What about saving life on Earth? Life has existed on Earth for well over 3 billion years. It has survived ice ages, large asteroids, diseases, and everything else that’s been thrown at it – for 3 thousand million years. At present, life exists on land, under the land, in the oceans, and in the air. Life on Earth is not likely to die off until the Sun does it in.

Certainly, some species will go extinct, and some new ones will crop up. This is as it always has been. Over 99% of the species that ever existed are now extinct. This is how nature works. Don’t feel bad: no species cares if they go extinct, except for humans.

So “saving the Earth” mostly means “saving humans”. Well, there’s good news about humans. There are human communities on every continent except for Antarctica. And we’re smart. We find solutions to problems that occur. We can adapt to many environments. Thus, it is difficult to see how a large portion of humanity can be killed off.

Disease? No. Many countries have modern sanitation and clean water and good medical care. Diseases that may have killed a large portion of humanity in the past can no longer do so.

Nuclear war? Only the United States and Russia have thousands of nuclear weapons. What president of the US or Russia would start a large-scale nuclear war? A small-scale nuclear war, say between India and Pakistan, would kill millions, but would not be a threat to humanity.

Global warming? The Earth is warming at the rate of about 2C per century. And by 2100, we’ll mostly have energy generated from sources that do not emit greenhouse gasses, so that will be the end of humanity’s contribution to global warming. Global warming may be disruptive in some areas, but it won’t pose a significant threat to humanity.

Overpopulation? The current population is just over 7 billion. But the rate of growth is slowing, and human population is expected to top out just after mid-century at 9 to 10 billion people. Right now, we could provide enough food for that many people. Technological advances will make food, water, and other resources inexpensively available to all.

So that’s it. Humanity is not under threat. We do not need to save the Earth.

------------------------------------------------

Yet many people are suffering and dying who don’t have to be. And this breaks the heart of all people of good will. What can be done about this? What is the major cause of this?

At its essence, it is the lack of freedom that results in needless suffering and dying.

In the developed world, there is relatively little needless suffering and dying.

But in the developing world, millions are dying and suffering each year from:

- Pollution (mostly from coal-burning power plants)

- Lack of sanitation and potable water

- Terrorism (in Syria alone, millions are affected by terrorism)

- Lack of modern health care

- Lack of crime control

Why are these things happening? The governments in the developing world do not protect their citizens’ freedom to live and believe as they wish. In fact, they mostly violate it.

In many predominantly Muslim countries, you can be arrested or killed for having the wrong belief system. And if you are a person who was a Muslim and converted to another religion, that person can, by Sharia Law, be killed.

In most African countries, the governments are so corrupt that the ruling class keeps most of the wealth to themselves. And they don’t protect property rights, making it difficult for the majority to accumulate wealth.

When governments don’t protect their citizens’ freedoms, especially their economic freedom, their people will not become prosperous. Without prosperity, getting a good education is difficult. And having a good sanitation system is difficult. And being able to afford pollution controls. And conservation measures are difficult.

Without freedom, there is no prosperity. And without prosperity, many of the things we need to lead happy and productive lives are not affordable.

Prosperity is the key to a better world for all. And the single, best thing we can do to assist humanity in becoming prosperous is to promote individual freedom, especially free markets and free trade.

------------------------------------------

Tim Farage is a Senior Lecturer in the Computer Science Department at The University of Texas at Dallas. The views expressed herein are those of the author. He writes about mathematics, computer science, physics, the reconciliation between science and spirituality, and the application of Natural Law to our various systems such as education, government and economics. You are welcome to comment upon this blog entry and/or to contact him at tfarage@hotmail.com.

Global Warming, Clean Energy, Prosperity, and an Enlightened Civilization

A question was asked of me recently about how urgent is the threat of global warming. Since, I'd answered this before, I thought I'd summarize previous answers and then move on to what would really make a difference.

Global projections from current data show a global warming from 1.3 to 1.9C per century. Even if it is a bit higher, say 2.5C by the year 2100, it will be disruptive in some areas, but others will benefit.

If we tried to slow down GW using something like a carbon tax, I've not seen any analyses that the current proposals would have any significant effects. Actually, they would make energy more expensive, which would hurt the poor the most.
Here are some suggestions that would make a difference:

1) In the US, when we need a new broad-based electrical power plant, we've been building natural gas plants. These burn very clean - they emit very little pollution, and they also emit less CO2 than a coal plant. Coal plants' pollution kill millions of people every year around the world. So we want to encourage China, India and other developing nations to use natural gas instead of coal.

2) Conservation efforts have saved money and lessened pollution in the United States. Houses and buildings that are well-insulated and have modern energy-efficient windows save money and reduce pollution. And our automobiles become more efficient and less polluting every year.

 

3) Invest in making nuclear power, solar power, and wind power affordable. These give off no pollution and no CO2. We’ll never run out of sunlight or wind, and there's enough fuel for nuclear plants to last for hundreds or thousands of years.

4) If we can use Thorium as a fuel for nuclear plants, that would be a great help to the world. First, Thorium plants cannot have meltdowns, and second, Thorium cannot be used to make nuclear weapons.

5) And perhaps most importantly, it is prosperity that allows a country to be able to afford pollution controls, conservation efforts, and to be able generate energy cleanly.

Prosperity comes from free-markets, and free-trade. Both of these require governments that are constitutional democracies - governments that protect individual rights. Only governments that protect individual rights are sustainable.

And there are other huge benefits from being a prosperous country.

One of these is that by having inexpensive, clean energy, the world will eventually solve one of its biggest problems – having enough energy for all. This lowers the cost of virtually everything. And that leads to even more prosperity, which leads to a good education for all – for every child in the world.

This can happen this century, making this century the most pivotal one in humanity’s history.

As a very nice consequence, prosperous countries don't go to war with each other.

And most importantly, all of us will get to choose whether we will then turn our efforts toward becoming more spiritual – to grow toward God, and to use out talents to make the world a better place.

If most of us do make this choice, this century will truly be the most pivotal one in humanity’s history.

-----------------

Tim Farage is a Senior Lecturer in the Computer Science Department at The  University of Texas at Dallas. The views expressed herein are those of  the author.